Possible scenario
Impeachment Effort Fizzles
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the impeachment filing becomes a pressure tactic rather than a successful removal effort. President Masoud Pezeshkian and senior security bodies contain the backlash while allowing U.S.-Iran nuclear contacts to continue at a cautious pace.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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