Possible scenario
Araghchi Is Removed
15% Chance
A lower-probability but disruptive outcome is that the foreign minister resigns or loses a confidence vote. That would signal that Pezeshkian’s Western-engagement strategy has suffered a major domestic setback and would likely pause U.S.-Iran nuclear diplomacy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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