Possible scenario
Renewed Full Blockade
18% Chance
A renewed blockade remains a meaningful risk because the original disruption was caused by an armed group rather than a technical outage. If the same leverage cycle repeats, Sharara could again lose a large share of output and revive concerns about Libya's reliability as a supplier.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Tickers
- TTE-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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