Possible scenario
Strategic Bargain Accelerates
15% Chance
A more bullish but less likely scenario is a broader U.S.-Turkey bargain that links F-35 reinstatement to NATO priorities, Ukraine-related logistics, Black Sea security, and Turkish defense procurement. This would require unusually strong White House pressure and a visible Turkish concession on the S-400 issue.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Tickers
- LMT+2.7%
- +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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