Possible scenario
Congressional Roadblock Holds
30% Chance
Congressional resistance remains a major obstacle because Turkey's 2019 expulsion was tied to the Russian S-400 purchase and CAATSA sanctions. Even if Trump supports the sale, lawmakers can delay or condition the process through the NDAA, holds, and notification procedures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- LMT-1.1%
- RTX-0.5%
- -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.