Possible scenario
U.S. Strikes IRGC
27% Chance
The Biden administration concludes that escort operations alone are failing and authorizes limited strikes on IRGC missile, drone, radar, and fast-boat facilities. The most likely objective is restoring deterrence without targeting core Iranian regime assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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