Possible scenario
Diplomatic Partial Reopening
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and the EU push a limited maritime ceasefire that separates tanker security from broader nuclear negotiations. Tehran may accept a face-saving pause if the U.S. signals limited humanitarian or escrowed oil-revenue relief without lifting the blockade outright.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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