Possible scenario
Contained Attrition Continues
38% Chance
Iran continues frequent small-boat, drone, and missile attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but Washington avoids direct strikes on Iranian territory. Energy flows remain severely disrupted, insurance costs surge, and naval escorts reduce but do not stop tanker losses.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.