Possible scenario
Talarico Narrow Win
38% Chance
James Talarico converts his fundraising advantage and polling lead into a narrow general-election victory over Ken Paxton. The outcome is plausible because the latest poll shows Talarico ahead, his advertising edge has persisted, and Paxton remains a polarizing nominee after his impeachment history.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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