Possible scenario
Paxton Comeback Win
34% Chance
Ken Paxton recovers from the polling deficit and wins by consolidating Republican voters who had been hesitant after the primary and impeachment controversy. This remains highly plausible in a Republican-leaning state where late undecideds may break toward the GOP nominee.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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