Possible scenario
Razor-Thin Contested Race
18% Chance
Arizona's close partisan balance makes a prolonged count plausible if the final margin is below one percentage point. Late-counted ballots in Maricopa and Pima counties, recount thresholds, and litigation over ballot procedures could delay a final result.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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