Hobbs Wins Reelection

Katie Hobbs remains the slight favorite because she is an incumbent leading in the available polling and Arizona has repeatedly rewarded candidates seen as more moderate. Andy Biggs can narrow the gap with Republican turnout, but Hobbs' positioning on abortion, election administration, and suburban issues gives her a plausible path to reelection.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.