Possible scenario
Biggs Completes Comeback
34% Chance
Biggs can still win because Arizona remains highly competitive and a 49%-45% poll lead is not decisive one month before Election Day. If national conditions favor Republicans or Hobbs' approval weakens, Biggs could consolidate GOP voters and win narrowly.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.