Possible scenario
Probe Narrows Quickly
38% Chance
The most likely path is that the search produces a limited document dispute rather than an immediate criminal case against Ilhan Omar. Federal agents and prosecutors avoid further escalation while both parties use the episode for political messaging before the investigation is clarified.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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