Possible scenario
Criminal Case Advances
22% Chance
Prosecutors may move from a search to charges or formal targets if they claim evidence supports an immigration-fraud or false-statements theory. This is less likely than a prolonged probe because charging a sitting member of Congress would invite major legal and political scrutiny.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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