Possible scenario
Republicans close gap
25% Chance
Republican efforts to normalize early and mail voting gain traction after Donald Trump publicly urged GOP voters to use mail ballots. The effect is most visible in battleground Senate and House states where the party had previously underperformed in pre-Election Day voting.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.3%
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.