Possible scenario
Bipartisan turnout surge
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the early-voting surge reflects broad voter engagement rather than a clean partisan signal. Expanded access, Republican encouragement of mail voting, and lingering voter habituation from 2020-2024 all keep early turnout well above 2022 levels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.