Possible scenario
Encirclement Consolidates
38% Chance
Ansarallah is most likely to consolidate the 20 km ring around Taiz rather than immediately push far beyond it. Control of Jabal Habashi improves observation over western approaches and makes a rapid pro-government relief operation harder.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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