Possible scenario
Iran Sustains Shutdown
30% Chance
Iran demonstrates an effective mix of RF detection, local raids, legal intimidation, and targeted jamming that sharply reduces Starlink usage. The result becomes a reference point for other authoritarian governments seeking to counter smuggled satellite internet terminals.
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -1.1%
- Technology -0.6%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX-4.8%
- VSAT-0.7%
- IRDM-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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