Possible scenario
Full 2027 rollout
44% Chance
The White House, Treasury, and SpaceX find a workable structure for distributing Musk's pledged shares through Trump Accounts in 2027. This is the base case because the policy architecture already exists and SpaceX executives have publicly aligned the company with the program.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
Tickers
- SPCX+3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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