Possible scenario
Winter Escalation Campaign
20% Chance
Moscow broadens the campaign from Kyiv to multiple regional grids, aiming to strain Ukrainian air defenses and force emergency power rationing before colder weather. This would represent a more material geopolitical escalation, though still short of direct NATO-Russia conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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