Possible scenario
Rolling Grid Damage
45% Chance
Russia continues a pressure campaign against Ukraine’s power system without triggering a wider NATO-Russia confrontation. Kyiv and Ukrenergo keep parts of the capital functioning through rolling blackouts, emergency repairs, and imports from neighboring European grids.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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