Possible scenario
Air Defense Response
25% Chance
The scale and repetition of Russian attacks prompt Ukraine’s allies to accelerate air-defense and power-grid support. The most likely response is additional interceptors, generators, transformers, and repair funding rather than direct NATO involvement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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