Possible scenario
Wider corruption probe
25% Chance
New disclosures indicate that more than one Israeli aviation-security official received payments from airlines subject to Israeli security oversight. The issue shifts from a narrow conflict-of-interest matter to a criminal or parliamentary investigation.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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