Possible scenario
Civilian Strike Escalation
20% Chance
Russia continues or intensifies attacks near civilian education sites in Kyiv Oblast, turning the teacher-support order into part of a broader emergency response. The situation raises diplomatic pressure on Moscow but still falls short of a systemic market shock unless attacks expand significantly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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