Possible scenario
Government Crisis Deepens
20% Chance
The committee vote hardens opposition from the left, the National Rally, and parts of the center-right. With bond yields already high and Scope having downgraded France, a failed budget process could quickly become a broader confidence test for the government.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.7%
- Industrials -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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