Possible scenario
Bypass Procedure Used
30% Chance
The government responds to the finance committee defeat by using constitutional tools to bypass a hostile lower house. This fits the recent pattern of preparing a parliamentary bypass for 2027 cuts, but it risks another no-confidence challenge.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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