Possible scenario
Budget Compromise Revived
35% Chance
The committee rejection becomes a negotiating step rather than a terminal defeat. Macron's government accepts targeted amendments on tax timing and exemptions, allowing the 2027 revenue bill to return to the National Assembly with enough centrist and conservative support to proceed.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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