Possible scenario
Limited Quotas Return
25% Chance
Authorities soften the ban after domestic inventories stabilize, allowing limited exports tied to term contracts or strategic customers. This reduces the risk of contract defaults while preserving Beijing's priority of domestic price control.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.