Possible scenario
Ban Stays Tight
45% Chance
Beijing keeps the export ban in force through most of October to protect domestic supply after fuel price caps limited refiners' pricing flexibility. PetroChina and other state refiners prioritize domestic allocations, leaving Asian spot buyers with fewer Chinese diesel and gasoline cargoes.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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