Possible scenario
Rates Stabilize Soon
25% Chance
The 7.5% mortgage-rate reading may mark a near-term ceiling if weaker housing and consumer data push investors back into Treasuries. In this scenario, housing equities recover some losses because the market starts to discount less upside risk to mortgage rates.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Fed policy rate Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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