Possible scenario
Housing Slump Deepens
40% Chance
Mortgage rates near 7.5% keep affordability at record-stressed levels and extend the drop in purchase applications. Buyers remain sidelined while sellers with low-rate mortgages continue to limit listings, leaving transaction volumes weak rather than triggering an immediate broad price collapse.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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