Possible scenario
Refund Contains Damage
45% Chance
DeepSeek's full-week refund is treated as a credible customer-retention move rather than a sign of deeper instability. The company publishes a clear incident explanation, restores developer confidence, and prevents a broad migration to rival AI APIs.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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