Possible scenario
Policy Relief Rally
23% Chance
The Fed and Treasury do not deliver a full crisis backstop, but officials signal discomfort with a disorderly tightening in financial conditions. Markets price a lower probability of further hikes and a higher probability of liquidity support or issuance adjustments.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +2.0%
- Technology +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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