Possible scenario
Orderly High-Rate Adjustment
42% Chance
Yields remain near 24-year highs, but investors treat the move as a painful repricing rather than the start of a systemic credit event. Corporate borrowers delay refinancing, banks tighten underwriting, and default expectations rise most for lower-rated issuers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.