Possible scenario
Border Attacks Resume
25% Chance
Houthi-linked launch activity resumes along the Saudi-Yemen border, consistent with the recent pattern of alerts and reported drone or missile attacks. The impact remains mostly regional unless civilian casualties or energy infrastructure are involved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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