Possible scenario
Hawkish Minutes Revive Hike
18% Chance
The minutes surprise markets by showing stronger concern that inflation progress could stall. Traders partially reverse the drop in October hike odds, pressuring duration-sensitive equities and lifting Treasury yields.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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