Possible scenario
Dovish Minutes Validate Pause
46% Chance
The September FOMC minutes reinforce the market's view that the October meeting is more likely to produce a pause than another hike. Softer core PCE and a cooler jobs report give officials cover to wait, even while keeping anti-inflation language intact.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.