Possible scenario
Data-Dependent Holding Pattern
31% Chance
The minutes do not strongly validate either a hike or a pause, leaving traders focused on the next inflation and labor-market releases. October hike odds remain near 15% to 25%, and cross-asset moves are contained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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