Possible scenario
Energy Infrastructure Escalation
25% Chance
The Houthis try to shift from symbolic strikes on Riyadh toward sustained pressure on Saudi energy assets. Even if most drones or missiles are intercepted, the prospect of repeated attacks on refineries, pipelines, or export terminals lifts the oil risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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