Possible scenario
Contained Retaliation Cycle
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia continues targeted airstrikes around Sanaa and Houthi missile sites, while the Houthis avoid another large hit on Riyadh energy infrastructure. The conflict returns to a dangerous but familiar tit-for-tat pattern without a confirmed prolonged outage at the Riyadh refinery.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.