Possible scenario
Threats Stay Deterrent
38% Chance
Israel uses the death of the northern Gaza brigade commander to reinforce deterrence but avoids an immediate overseas strike. U.S., Egyptian and Qatari channels press both sides to keep the conflict from spilling further into third countries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.