Possible scenario
Sustained Infrastructure Strikes
30% Chance
The Houthis extend the campaign from airports to additional oil and logistics targets, keeping Saudi air defenses under pressure. Even without a prolonged supply outage, markets price a higher risk premium into crude and Gulf aviation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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