Possible scenario
Contained Airport Disruption
38% Chance
Saudi authorities keep Dammam, Riyadh, and other major airports operating with intermittent diversions and heightened air-defense alerts. The Houthis continue threats but do not materially damage additional strategic infrastructure in the next few days.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Energy +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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