Possible scenario
Republicans Narrow Gap
30% Chance
Republicans remain structurally stronger on Election Day and among late rural voters, so the Democratic early-vote edge narrows before polls close. This would keep Nevada highly competitive and reduce confidence that the current early-vote advantage translates into final Democratic wins.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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