Possible scenario
Mixed Ballot Outcome
15% Chance
The party-registration advantage in early voting does not translate cleanly into uniform Democratic wins because independents split and some voters cross party lines. Nevada could produce a mixed result, with Democrats performing well in federal races while Gov. Joe Lombardo or other Republicans remain competitive statewide.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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