Possible scenario
Democratic Lead Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Democrats preserve most of their statewide early-vote advantage because Clark County in-person voting has shifted decisively their way. Republicans still improve on Election Day, but not enough to erase the accumulated Democratic ballot lead.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.4%
- Finance -0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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