Possible scenario
Limited Gulf Exchange
28% Chance
Iran’s launches are confirmed as part of a limited retaliatory sequence tied to Israel and Gulf overflight restrictions. UAE and allied defenses prevent major damage, but Israel conducts targeted strikes on Iranian launch or command sites, keeping the conflict contained but active.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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