Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
20% Chance
Regional intermediaries use the airport shutdown to push Iran, the UAE, Israel, and the U.S. toward a short deconfliction arrangement. This scenario is plausible because Iran has previously used threats and missile launches for coercive signaling without necessarily seeking open-ended war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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