Possible scenario
Evasion Network Adapts
25% Chance
Iranian exporters and intermediaries adjust routing, documents, and vessel behavior faster than enforcement can close gaps. The blockade remains costly for Tehran, but discounted barrels continue reaching some Asian buyers.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
Tickers
- XOM-0.5%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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